How bad is the HVAC and plumbing technician shortage, and what can contractors do?
What the federal data actually shows about openings, retirements and the recruiting pipeline — where the shortage is real, where the headlines overshoot, and the levers a contractor controls.
Yes — HVAC and plumbing employers are competing for technicians in occupations the BLS expects to grow much faster than average, with about 40,600 HVAC and 42,000 plumbing openings a year projected for 2025–2035.
But the honest answer to “how bad” is more measured than the headlines: the HVAC technician shortage is a replacement-demand problem, not a collapsing workforce.
Here is what the data shows, where the squeeze is worst, and what you can do about it.
How many HVAC and plumbing openings are there each year?
The federal baseline comes from the BLS Employment Projections program, whose current release covers 2025 to 2035.
It projects about 40,600 openings a year for HVAC mechanics and installers over the decade, and about 42,000 openings a year for plumbers, pipefitters and steamfitters.
Our HVAC industry statistics page collects these figures with pay, employment by state and our own live job-openings count.
Growth sits underneath those totals.
BLS projects HVAC employment to grow 11% from 2025 to 2035 and plumbing employment to grow 7% — rates it calls much faster than average, against projected growth of 3.5% for total U.S. employment over the same decade.
Most of the openings, though, are not new jobs.
For HVAC, BLS attributes most of the 40,600 annual openings to replacing workers who leave or retire — replacement, not expansion, is the engine of the shortage, and it keeps running even in a year when the industry adds no net jobs.
The current-conditions check is BLS's JOLTS survey, and it is worth reading carefully because it cuts against the loudest version of the shortage story.
In August 2026 (preliminary, seasonally adjusted), the construction industry had 251,000 job openings — an openings rate of 2.9%, versus 4.5% for all private industry.
Construction covers every trade, not just HVAC and plumbing, and its openings rate is below the private-sector average.
The shortage you feel is not economy-wide churn; it is concentrated replacement demand in two occupations that are growing fast.
Why is the shortage happening? Retirements, the pipeline, and seasonality
Start with the scale of the workforce: 561,000 HVAC mechanics and installers and 624,000 plumbers, pipefitters and steamfitters were employed in 2025.
Inside the HVAC number sits the retirement block: about 105,000 employed HVAC mechanics — roughly 19% — were 55 or older in 2025, counting 77,000 aged 55 to 64 plus 28,000 aged 65 and over.
Those are the ages at which careers wind down, which is why replacement demand never pauses.
The correction your trade-magazine feed needs: this is not an unusually old workforce.
The median age of employed HVAC mechanics in 2025 was 39.9, and of plumbers 40.2 — both below the 42.1 median age for all employed workers.
The trade is younger than the workforce overall; it simply carries a large cohort now reaching retirement age at the same time, and the openings math reflects the cohort, not an aging curve the data doesn't show.
The pipeline is the second cause, and it shows up in who gets recruited at all.
Women were 2.7% of employed HVAC mechanics and 3.1% of plumbers, pipefitters and steamfitters in 2025, against 47.1% of all employed people.
A trade drawing nearly all its hires from half the workforce caps its own supply — a structural reason openings stay hard to fill even when demand is strong.
Two figures you may have seen deserve a warning label.
The “industry needs 86,000 employees over the next five years” claim traces to an unsourced industry estimate on a scholarship page — repeat it and you are quoting marketing, not data.
And no primary source quantifies seasonal swings in HVAC hiring; BLS publishes decade-average openings, so plan on averages that your peak season will not feel like.
Churn is not the villain either, whatever the headlines say: construction had 152,000 quits in August 2026 (preliminary), a quits rate of 1.8% versus 2.1% for all private industry — industry-wide numbers, not tech-specific, but they do not support a mass-exodus story.
One more honesty note: our research found no primary source for time-to-fill, cost-per-hire or technician-turnover percentages in these trades, so treat any article quoting one as unsourced.
Where is the shortage worst?
Blunt answer: the federal data does not rank it.
BLS projects openings at the national occupation level, and its JOLTS counts cover construction as one industry — neither series publishes unfilled HVAC or plumbing openings by state or city.
Our research found no verified state ranking of the shortage, so any “worst states” list you come across is somebody's estimate, not federal data.
What transfers to your market is the replacement math.
Roughly 19% of employed HVAC mechanics being 55 or older is a national figure, but it retires crew by crew, in every county where the trade is worked — and the projected growth adds new demand on top.
The shortage is not one region's problem; it is your problem to the degree that your local market cannot replace the techs it is losing.
So read your own market instead of a ranking.
Count qualified applicants per opening and how long the seat sits empty.
Check what techs are actually paid near you on the HVAC technician salary and plumber salary pages, and scan the live listings on the HVAC technician jobs and plumber jobs pages to see what candidates in your market are being offered.
Those numbers describe your local shortage more honestly than any national chart.
What can a contractor do about the shortage?
The data points at two levers: grow the supply you control, and stop feeding the replacement cycle.
Every position you fill with an apprentice you trained, or keep filled by a technician who stays, is one of those 40,600-plus annual openings somebody else now has to fill.
Grow your own.
The only tech supply that responds directly to your effort is the one you train — start with our guide to how to recruit apprentices, which covers sourcing, screening with no experience to judge, pay steps and supervision ratios.
Apprenticeship is slow; it is also the only channel where you are not bidding against every other shop for the same experienced hands.
Widen the pool you recruit from.
With women at 2.7% of HVAC mechanics and 3.1% of plumbers, nearly every competitor is fishing in the same half of the labor pool — and 47.1% of the workforce is not.
Widening your sourcing is the largest untapped supply the demographic data shows, and it starts with where you post and who your posting speaks to.
Keep the techs you have.
Every technician who stays is an opening another contractor cannot poach — and that playbook is its own page: read our guide to retaining HVAC technicians before your next resignation letter lands.
We won't quote a turnover-cost figure here, because no primary source publishes one for these trades.
Pay against the market, not against your last offer.
The BLS wage medians by state and role are on our salary pages; use them as the floor for the conversation, and be skeptical of any “standard sign-on bonus” number you read, for the same reason — no primary source publishes one.
Then post where career seekers already look, and write the posting for a candidate with choices.
The full playbook lives in our guide to hiring HVAC and plumbing techs — sourcing channels, screening, pay plans and red flags — and the posting itself is the one artifact in this whole effort you control completely.
This page is employer career and business information, not legal advice; employment decisions have legal dimensions — confirm specifics with an employment attorney where they apply.
The shortage in five numbers
- About 40,600 openings a year for HVAC mechanics and installers, projected over 2025–2035 (BLS).
- About 42,000 openings a year for plumbers, pipefitters and steamfitters over the same decade (BLS).
- 11% (HVAC) and 7% (plumbing) projected employment growth for 2025–2035 — versus 3.5% for total U.S. employment.
- Roughly 19% of employed HVAC mechanics — about 105,000 people — were 55 or older in 2025.
- Women were 2.7% of HVAC mechanics and 3.1% of plumbers in 2025, against 47.1% of all employed people.
Questions employers ask
Is there really a shortage of HVAC and plumbing technicians?
The demand data is real: BLS projects about 40,600 HVAC and about 42,000 plumbing openings a year over 2025–2035, with employment growing 11% and 7% respectively — both much faster than average.
What the data doesn't support is “unprecedented”: construction's job-openings rate was 2.9% in August 2026, below the 4.5% private-sector average.
What contractors feel is replacement demand — seats emptied by retirements that keep needing refill — concentrated in two fast-growing occupations.
How many HVAC technicians are at or near retirement age?
About 105,000 of the 561,000 employed HVAC mechanics and installers — roughly 19% — were 55 or older in 2025: 77,000 aged 55–64 plus 28,000 aged 65 and over.
The trade is not unusually old overall: its median age of 39.9 is below the 42.1 median for all employed workers.
The problem is not an aged workforce but a large cohort now hitting retirement age while the occupation grows.
Which states have the worst HVAC technician shortage?
No federal series ranks states by unfilled HVAC or plumbing openings.
BLS projects at the national occupation level, and its JOLTS data counts construction as a single industry, so any “worst states” list you find is an estimate, not federal data.
The number that matters is local: qualified applicants per posting, pay movement in your metro, and how long your own openings sit unfilled.
Why is it so hard to hire HVAC techs if the workforce is younger than average?
Because median age is not the binding constraint — replacement volume is.
BLS projects 11% employment growth for HVAC from 2025 to 2035 alongside about 40,600 openings a year, most of them replacements for workers who leave or retire.
Layer on a recruiting pipeline that has historically drawn from only part of the workforce — women were 2.7% of employed HVAC mechanics in 2025 — and experienced-tech supply stays tight regardless of median age.
More hiring resources
Need techs? Go where the pipeline is
The shortage is mostly a replacement problem — and replacement starts with a posting written for people considering the trade.
Post your HVAC or plumbing opening where career seekers already read.